Christian and Muslim Share of Population, AD 33 to 2026

Estimated share of local population through two millennia: Christianity in blue, Islam in red, genuine co-presence in purple. Historical anchor data blended with a live diffusion model; drag the sliders to play.
AD 33Pentecost, Jerusalem
Est. world population
Christians
Muslims
View Speed Display Frontier Layers
Conversion growth inside a community
Geographic diffusion along trade and sea routes
How tightly heat hugs population centers
Response to conquest and suppression eras
pure simulation (model only)pure history (anchor data)
Est. share of local population
Christianity
Islam
mixed (both ≥ 2%) log-scaled; brightness also weights population density
Data tables: estimated Christian and Muslim share by region
About this model

This is a toy historical model, not a precise dataset. Each of 32 world regions carries hand-curated anchor estimates of the Christian share of its population at 19 moments between AD 33 and 2026, drawn from standard scholarship: Rodney Stark's early-growth estimates (roughly 40% per decade to AD 300), dated conversions (Armenia 301, Ethiopia c. 340, Rus 988), decline curves after the Islamic conquests, the colonial-era spread to the Americas, and modern survey figures (Pew, World Christian Database).

The simulation layer is a logistic growth plus diffusion model on a 2° land grid, seeded at Jerusalem in AD 33, spreading along populated cells, across narrow seas, and over dated ocean routes (1493 Atlantic, 1498 Cape route, 1565 Pacific). The blend slider mixes the two layers; at 100% history you see the anchor data, at 0% the model runs free under your parameters.

Heat intensity is the log-scaled Christian share multiplied by a population-density weight, so sparse deserts stay dark even where the faith is dominant, and early minority communities remain visible.